So, it’s happening.

For the past three years, Democrats have been mounting an impeachment case for President Trump and they finally got what they wanted. An inquiry.

Will this change anything for Trump’s administration? Probably not. The Democrats in the Senate now need to whip votes so a supermajority of members vote to impeach.

Will this change anything for 2020? Probably not. No more candidates will bid for the presidency, the GOP will nominate Trump and the DNC will either nominate Biden, Warren or Sanders. We’ve already known this.

Will it change anything for the Democrats? Probably not. Pelosi is terrified of losing her majority and according to FiveThirtyEight polls, impeachment still isn’t popular even after the whistleblower came forward. The Speaker didn’t embrace the inquiry with open arms and Schumer doesn’t have the political clout to change anything in the Senate, yet voters will have to back a presidential candidate who supports it because the likely nominees all support removing Trump.

What it will change is how the race is run.

Trump has now been outed as someone who would allegedly accept foriegn aid in a domestic election once again after the Mueller report was released last March, confirming as much.

Obviously, the president either did not learn from his mistakes or has no qualms about calling on foreign entities to help him keep power. Either of these outcomes are bad for the presidency and for the country.

Democratic candidates spanning congressional and presidential races alike will use the impeachment process as a talking point for their constituents. It will quickly become a hot debate topic. Their words will soon become empty and ineffective.

President Trump should be impeached. He should be tried by the Senate and removed from office. Republicans should put people before party and do what is right for the country and end this years long nightmare of an administration.

But nothing will happen.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell will enjoy a lot of flexibility on how the trial will be conducted if he begins one. And that’s his prerogative: his job is literally to run the Senate and decide what bills or motions they hear. McConnell doesn’t need to hold an impeachment trial and the only way he will is if public opinion changes against Trump a la Nixon in 1974.

Aside from the general politics of the situation, no president has faced removal at the hands of Congress. 

President Andrew Johnson was impeached, but he termed out before the Senate could forcibly remove him. President Nixon famously resigned before the Senate removed him. President Clinton was acquitted by the Senate in 1999.

There is also still the possibility the president will be a two-term president. If he is impeached in his second term and the Senate cannot remove him, Trump will be untouchable. The worst will happen, yet he will remain.

Even if President Trump is impeached in his first term which has never happened, there is no precedent for removal which casts a dismal shadow over the Democrats’ efforts.

A haze covers the political field right now. No one, not even the revered talking heads of CNN, MSNBC and Fox can accurately predict what will happen. It’s cliche to say now, but America has truly never been more divided or more polarized in living memory.

Yet the show must go on. The House will conduct an inter-Committee inquiry and gather information through subpoenas, The Senate may or may not hold a trial and Trump may or may not be impeached. But he won’t be removed.

Unfortunately, the political circus has returned and it’s here for the foreseeable future.